2020 Election Polling
2020 Election Polling
Weekly updates on the race for control of Parliament
Politics
The latest trends in popular support for each party
POLL RESULTS FROM WEEK OF
32%
CANADA
ALBERTA
ATLANTIC
BRITISH COLUMBIA
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA
LATEST ASSESSMENT FROM OUR POLLING PARTNERS AT 
“Hung parliament likely as the closest election in years comes to an end
Liberals are still favored to win more seats but everything will depend on dozens of close local races
POLITICO ANALYSIS
Polls show no clear victor heading into election
Justin Trudeau is in severe political peril as Canada's national election campaign heads into election day, with his incumbent governing party in danger of losing the majority control.
The compendium of surveys shows Conservatives and Liberals tied at 32 percent, the left-wing New Democratic Party at 18 percent and the Green Party at 8 percent.
"The prospect of a Liberal government has declined a lot," said David Coletto, CEO of Canadian polling firm Abacus Data.
Trudeau is bleeding votes in two areas, Coletto said. Inside French-speaking Quebec, a sudden surge by separatist party Bloc Québécois has cut into the Liberal lead across the province and could flip numerous seats.
The Bloc now stands at 30 percent in that province, just three points behind Trudeau's Liberals. In a multi-party race, that could mean far more difficult contests outside the urban electoral districts where Liberal votes are concentrated.
The strength of progressive rival NDP is also hurting Liberals. The smaller party is now several points ahead of where it stood a month ago, gobbling up valuable votes.
Coletto said one scenario is becoming increasingly clear: The next Canadian government probably won't hold the same commanding parliamentary majority currently enjoyed by Trudeau's Liberals.
So-called minority governments, in which the party that controls the executive branch holds fewer than 50 percent of House of Commons seats, are quite common in Canada.
They make for less stable, less predictable government that struggles to advance its bills and constantly faces the risk of defeat and a new election.
"It seems very likely than neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives can pull off a majority," Coletto said.
It's not yet clear whether Trudeau or Scheer would lead such a minority government. Coletto said Trudeau's mission now involves convincing skeptical progressives that there's a real chance they might wake up after the election with a Conservative government.
That's because Coletto's own polling illustrates that supporters of every progressive party still believe Trudeau's Liberals are likelier to win than Scheer's Conservatives, and would prefer Trudeau if forced to make a choice between the two.
Trudeau is now pleading, with increasing urgency, for left-leaning voters to back him. He punctuated that plea this month with a history lesson.
He noted that the last time the NDP gained seats in Parliament, Conservatives won and pulled Canada out of the Kyoto climate accord.
“We’ve seen what happened," Trudeau said.
Trudeau's opponent on the left, the NDP's Jagmeet Singh, has dismissed such talk as a fear campaign: "When you vote out of fear, you don’t get what you want," Singh said last week. “Don’t vote against something. Vote for something you believe in.”
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